I made the mistake of saying on Twitter that I didn't understand why people are automatically assuming Cam Newton will be the starting quarterback of the New England Patriots, but of course one has to understand how these things work. People are reactionary and they see shiny keys dangling in front of their faces, and they think, "Bauble!" Whereas, I'm someone who thinks someone might actually have something intelligent to say, one way or the other, which is naive on my part. Or an expenditure of too much hope on my part.
Maybe he will be the starter. Perhaps he is the likely starter. But I don't know that he isn't as likely (or more likely) to be cut as he is to start. I was, of course, wrong about the Brady situation, as I thought he would certainly be back. Here is what I see with Newton: an inaccurate passer (under 60% completion rate for his career), who is dependent on running the ball (he's thirty-one and takes a lot of hits and has had injury issues), who is a clear front-runner. When things go well, okay, let's roll, when things don't go well, he's not your guy to make them go well. He needs to run to be any good, and I don't think he was that good when he was good. He's thrown for 4000 yards once in a league when everyone throws for 4000 yards. Mere yardage doesn't mean a lot, but when you're thirty-one, you don't really move the ball down the field with your arm, you get hurt, you're signed to the minimum, you're only signed for one year--I don't think Belichick is looking to have a one-and-done quarterback at Belichick's age--I just don't see this being a fit.
Now, he might get hurt, and people will say, "Well, he would have been their superstar QB," but staying healthy is as much a skill as accuracy or reading a defense. Not to the same level, but it's part of the arsenal if you're going to be a top end quarterback. QB rating, also pretty middling. His entire career has been during the high QB rating era. What do you think makes him so good? That he won an MVP? So did Jose Theodore. Means something, can mean a lot, doesn't always mean much, sometimes means little.