Sports now: What was that I said about the NBA Finals, defending (ugh) Craig Breslow, swinging to spreadsheets, a chance for hockey history

Tuesday 6/9/26

Told you the NBA Finals weren't over. I said this to someone the other day and they were like, "Really?" all surprised, but also taking this seriously because it was I who said it. I know everything about sports history, I know everything about present day sports, and I usually have a pretty good idea of what is going to happen as pertains sports future. I'm not not going to say this because it is true and it's all worth saying. Ours is a world where people will only say anything favorable about you if they think you are like them. Which leaves me to say these things that are born out in truth in my professional work and in this journal as well.

Of course, it helped that the league so badly wants Wemby to succeed, which is why you saw that free throw disparity in the fourth quarter that made for the difference in the game. I was underwhelmed by Wemby again. You can't reach double digits in rebounding? He's a dirty player, too. Kind of a fake tough guy as well. It's easy when you're 7'4" to act tough. But it's acting. That's not a tough guy. I still can't believe he wasn't punished more for that elbow to the throat earlier in the playoffs.

This is one of those times I say, "I can't believe" because you feel like you have to because of how absurd something is, when I actually can believe it. The world is a series of levers being pulled for desired outcomes; it's not a world in which things happen because of what they are and are in relation to other things. Write that down if you're interested in knowing how these times really work and return to it until you know it by heart.

Conflicting reports are coming out about the job safety of Red Sox general manager (or whatever his title is) Craig Breslow. Some say they're hearing he's definitely gone, others that he's staying.

I don't like Breslow, but I'm not sure they should move on from him. I think only so much of this is his fault for starters. Willson Contreras is working out thus far. Much better than I would have thought. I expect he won't continue on in this fashion--this isn't a 30 homer, 100 RBI player; never was and I'd be very surprised if he all of a sudden became that now--but that move looks smart here on June 9.

Breslow got the pitching right. Garrett Crochet is getting a pass on this season. That this staff is doing what it's doing without Crochet says a lot in Breslow's favor. It's one of the best staffs in baseball and that's without a pitcher who was one of the two or three best pitchers in all of baseball last season.

Do you blame Breslow for the line-up? Look at Alex Bregman with the Cubs. He's awful, as I said he would be. Look at Rafaela Devers with the Giants. He's bad, too, as I said he would be. If you want to go back further, just for the team's track record in moving on with guys, Xander Bogaerts is a nothing player for the Padres. He adds little to a big league team at this point. That guy lost it fast and he's not getting it back.

Red Sox fans bemoan the letting go of these players. I have news for you: these players suck. Bregman would be one more guy in this Sox line-up who sucks if he were here. He wasn't good last year. But now he's bad. And he'll stay bad. This is how it goes. The arc of a career. You go up, then you go down. When you hit the various marks can vary from guy to guy, but he's going down. There he goes. Look at him in his little cart. And if he were here, he'd also be that player who sucks who's getting paid a ton that is on a deal of significant term.

Breslow deserves credit because he was correct. Here, I think, is the biggest problem with how this roster was built, and I don't know how much of it is Breslow's fault. I feel, though, like it's not too much. They thought, for whatever reason, that the young, homegrown players were going to be stars in 2026. Or major contributors. Roman Anthony would be a star and Marcelo Mayer would be a major contributor.

I think Anthony is a bust. I don't believe he'll ever be a star. I don't believe he'll match the best years of Andrew Benitendi, and it's not like we're talking Mickey Mantle-like years. I don't think he's that good. No italics. He's a singles hitter who strikes out a ton. I don't care if you have a 117 OPS+ for a few months in today's MLB because that number is determined relative to other players in a league where there are more bad hitters than ever before because of the approach to the game.

That's right, analytics, Driveline, launch angle, all that nonsense, produces a bunch of guys who can't hit. They can swing for home runs, yes. But so could Steve Balboni, and he connected more often than the vast majority of these hitters who all take the same dreary approach. That's not hitting. That's swinging to spreadsheets. (By the way: Steve Balboni really looked like a Steve Balboni, didn't he?)

Kristian Campbell was terrible for the Red Sox last year. He was hyped up as the future, the team signed him to a long term deal and then embarrassingly bragged about how great he was and how smart they were, and then not long after he was sent down to the minors and hasn't been back since and won't be back anytime soon because he can't hit down there either. Oh--he also doesn't have a position because in today's baseball, and certainly with today's Red Sox operation, no one really cares about someone having a position they can play, just so long as they swing to spreadsheets.

But here's a stat for you: Kristian Campbell’s OPS+ during his time with the Red Sox in 2025: 89. Marcelo Mayer’s OPS+ with the Red Sox so far in 2026: 64.

64, baby. 100 is league average.

He did homer last night, though, in the Sox' 3-1 loss to the Rays. He now has 3 homers here on June 9. If they leave him in there--and don't send him down--he may get to 7 by season's end. Or even 8.

I don't think he's a major league player. Why is he still with the big club when Campbell was sent down? Campbell was dreadful in the field. Mayer isn't dreadful. He's not particularly good, but isn't a disaster. Cool. Also: he looks the part. I'm serious. He looks more the part of the strapping young baseball up and comer than Campbell does. And if you don't think things like that color judgments in an unthinking, ignorant world where almost everyone is bad at their job, I don't know what to tell you.

The bottom line is not as much is Breslow's fault as Red Sox fans want it to be. The guy is a drip of a person--a drip of oil from out of a robot--but what was he supposed to do? And he gave you the pitching. He brought in the guys to make this staff what it's been, and that's with one hand being tied behind his back, in effect, with Garrett Crochet first being bad and then not available. They weren't going to let him sign big stars and I don't know who you would have wanted anyway. Pete Alonso on a long term deal? No thanks. The players weren't out there. And the Sox' young guns suck. Sorry--it's not really Breslow's fault, and I can't stand him.

This is almost certainly the best chance ever for a Stanley Cup final to go seven games with each game being decided by one goal. I love things like that so of course I'm hoping it happens. That's how a series like this sticks around in historical discussions, because the teams themselves aren't that exciting on paper (history book paper, if you will). How many future Hall of Famers do we have between these two teams? Eichel will probably get in, though I don't think he's a Hall of Fame player.

Usually you have a bunch. Almost always. Sometimes a passel. What do I think the chances are of this amazing statistical thing happening? An empty net goal could be the spoiler, but I'd say pretty high, actually: twenty-five percent let's call it.

The Canes need to decide who they want in goal tonight (and have essentially suggested as much by being noncommittal about who's starting). The former Bruin, Brandon Bussi, was strong in relief in Game 3. Frederick Andersen hasn't been great in this series but he has a 1.89 GAA in these playoffs. You don't tend to get replaced mid-stream after you've gone this far and done that well. I could have seen the 1980s Edmonton Oilers doing that with their tandem of Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog, but my feeling is you see less "risky" moves of that ilk today (excepting, of course, Vegas' late-season canning of their coach who is one of the best, if not the best, in the league). Andersen is the Canes' front runner for the Conn Smythe if they win and Bussi has played but the one game in these playoffs. I'd be borderline shocked if it isn't Andersen between the pipes tonight.