Breaking down the latest Red Sox surge

Wednesday 8/6/25

All the Boston Red Sox do is win!

Okay, so I'm exaggerating, but they have won seven in a row and just as importantly, if not more so, they're playing some very nice baseball. The errors are down, the strikeout are down (only two last night). The pitching has been there, they respond when they need runs.

What you could say, if you were a cynic, is they're winning a lot more games at home where they've had a particularly dominant stretch, versus on the road, where they're 25-30, and you know what that suggests:

Cheating!

It also seems like a bunch of teams have their issues with the Red Sox, like they're doing something nefarious.

You can steal signs. You can have a guy on second decipher the grip on the ball in the pitcher's hand and relay that to the batter. This is all fine and fair. Here's the rub: It's okay if you're only using your eyes. That's gamesmanship.

I would think with Cora's history and that his career would almost surely be over if he were busted again, that the Sox are on the up and up, but I don't know for certain. Regardless, the pitching is winning them many of these games. Giolito was solid last time out, ditto Bello, then you had Crochet last night after some extra rest doing his thing.

Question: Is it really so farfetched for Crochet to win the AL MVP if the Sox finished with the best record in the AL, he won the pitching triple crown, Raleigh finished under .250, and Judge came back to the pack and the Yankees were either the third Wild Card or out of the playoffs entirely?

I'm getting way ahead of things. The Yankees will most likely stop their bleeding. But something like that could happen. As for Aaron Judge: Doesn't his season feel really front-loaded? He got out to that amazing start, but is he going to win the MVP when just as much of his season could end up being about falling back to earth? And I don't think you give it to someone hitting in the .240s, though I could see that happening in a world where stupidity is king. I'd sure find that disappointing, though, and as someone who knows what he knows, I would know better. That would be something that an intelligent person would later look back on as a mistake--like Jeff Burroughs winning the 1974 MVP--is there were any intelligent people who cared about these matters.

Allowing that he doesn't get hurt--which is always a possibility with him--Trevor Story has a great shot at 100 RBI, which I would never have predicted. He's a player you can pitch to, but he's driving in those runs. We can say that a huge part of the RBI stat is your opportunity, but there are guys who find a way more than most to score that runner who is in scoring position. It's a skill and an important one, regardless of what analytics--by which I really mean analytics people--will try and have you believe.

The Sox sit three back of the division leading Jays, but here's the more telling stat to me: They're seven back of the Brewers for the best record in baseball. Why am I mentioning this seemingly random stat pertaining to a team in the other league? Because it highlights what is happening this season. There are no great teams. It's wide open. Similar to last year's NBA, but more so, if that makes sense. I think something is way off with the Dodgers, as I've said before. I don't see that team repeating.

If I fell asleep today and woke up on Halloween and you told me that such and such a team won the World Series, I can't imagine what team it could be that would surprise me. Which is to say, no team.

I wasn't as aggrieved as most Sox fans by the trade deadline. Joe Ryan this, Joe Ryan that. Here's the Joe Ryan thing: I don't know that he's that good or he's just having a nice stretch. He's never been good prior to this year. So he's good now and is going to stay good? I think the owner of the Sox doesn't care about them winning--or winning more than just enough--and prefers to cheap out than go for championships and I'm not absolving him (or his motives). The team needed, in my view, a first baseman. A number two starter would have been great, but people talk about number two starts like there are all of these good ones out there, and how many teams have more than one good starter when you get down to it? A back-up catcher also would have been nice. I think they're waiting on--or figuring--Wong can hit like he did last year, or within thirty percent of that, because, after all, it happened.

What I didn't want the Sox to do was trade Jarren Duran. The perception is he's had a big drop off from last year. I've talked about his misadventures in the outfield. But when I look at a player's offense game, one area where I focus is how they stack up against the rest of the league. Things like top ten placements. Want to do some with Duran?

He's tenth in the AL in hits. Ninth in total bases. Third in doubles. First in triples. Fourth in extra base hits (big stat). Here's his line: .263 batting average, 12 homers, 64 RBI, 64 runs scored. Batting average is hard to predict, but here's my guess on where those other numbers will be at the close of 162 games: 18 homers, 85 RBI, 85 runs scored. He'll have over 40 doubles, call it 18 triples. I'm being more conservative than not. His WAR is at 3.3. Which means he has an outside shot at 5. You put up 5 WAR in a season, you're doing pretty well. That's All-Star level, and not in the "Eh, let's name this guy to the team because every squad has to be represented" sense.

When he's playing with confidence, he's an engine for your offense. He looks quite comfortable when they have him in that three-hole, but last night he was batting lead-off again. Cora moves guys around.

One thing that stood out to me, which no one has much commented on: Sending Brennan Bernardino down to Triple A after eleven consecutive scoreless appearances. Why? That's a solid run. You don't see this kind of thing happening.

He hasn't played the last two games because of some injury that sounds minor, but Roman Anthony has been a big part of this upswing. The Sox have themselves a player in this twenty-one-year-old. He could be the real deal. I don't know if the power is there for that--I just haven't seen enough--but he looks comfortable at the plate. Has the eye. Gets on base, makes things happen. I guess you could have said some of the same things about Andrew Benitendi, and look what a Punch and Judy hitter/washout he quickly became. Let's hope that the same won't be true of Anthony, and that he becomes a cornerstone guy, an MVP threat type of player. Are the chances decidedly against that? Sure, of course. But I like what I've been seeing, and twenty-one is awfully early for a baseball player to look like Anthony has, at least at the plate. This isn't basketball or hockey, where you see twenty-one-year-olds ripping it up. Baseball players almost always take longer. Someone like Fisk had that great rookie year in his age twenty-four season.

Let's look at some more numbers, and project some others, shall we? You know who leads the Red Sox in walks? Rafael Devers. Still. At 56. And it's not close either--Duran is second at 38 (I'm using stats right now that don't include last night's results). You definitely don't think of Duran as a walks guy, so that tells you this is one free-swinging club, and that can really bite you. It's harder to manufacture runs. The most famous run in Red Sox history--well, discounting the Fisk blast in Game Six of the 1975 series--began with a walk, that being to Kevin Millar in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. You have to be able to scratch a run across when need be. Three runs jacks are nice in August, but the game shifts as the day's shorten.

The Sox may end up with no one reaching 30 homers, 100 RBI, or 100 runs scored. Rafaela leads the position players in WAR with 4.1. Story has already struck out 128 times. Duran 122. Narvaez, Rafaela, and Abreau will join them in the 100 strikeout club before the season is over. Kristian Campbell--who I doubt we'll see again this year--had 72 strikeouts and it feels like he's been gone a long time. Devers had 76. Had they remained, you're talking a line-up with seven guys clearing the century mark in Ks.

That's a lot. Damn.

Bregman is not walking much, which I stated was a concern of mine before the season started, though his walk total has rebounded somewhat from what was very troubling territory.

A big part of Duran's numbers--like total bases--is that he doesn't walk, he stays healthy, he's rarely out of the line-up, which really gives you an idea of how little the Sox walk as a team, given that he's their active bases on balls leader. Anthony has a good eye and strong plate discipline. He helps. He may surpass Duran by the end of the month as the club's active walks leader, and he hasn't been on the team that long.

I've been meaning to mention the Sox' series-closing game against the Dodgers from a couple Sundays ago, because something happened that may never have happened before in all of baseball history. The Sox won 4-3, taking the series, but here's the mindblower: Sox pitchers walked nine Dodgers batters, while the Sox batters managed a sole base on balls. And they won? How?!

Your odds of winning such a game must be like 1/100th of 1 percent. At any level of baseball. The game goes back to nearly the Civil War. Has this happened before? If it has, it has to be less than ten times. I was astounded by this as I watched the game unfold, and I've not heard anyone else comment on it. Maybe I'm the only person who notes these types of things now. Or notices them. Or knows enough to be cognizant of them. But that is one doozy of an unlikely stat.

A note about ex-Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi: He gave up one hit in eight innings last night against the Yankees to get the win in a 2-0 game. This is his age thirty-five season. He's now 10-3 with a...1.38 ERA! Wow. How is that happening? He didn't walk anyone either. That ERA jumps out at you like few do in, oh, let's say, 100 years! Or ever. That's a number from a Dwight Gooden stretch in 1985 or Bob Gibson in 1968. I'd say watch out for those Rangers. They could be a dangerous team.