The fallacy that traded players are likely to re-sign with their old team, the myth about most NHL OT goals being fluky, why Auston Matthews should be a wing, how the Pacers can win, Red Sox surprise

Monday 6/9/25

It's very strange that when a player is trader from a team--and you encounter this kind of thinking more with baseball and hockey--that people think it's a real possibility the player will re-sign with that team at the end of that given season, if he's a free agent. Bruins fans said this, for example, after Marchand was dealt. Red Sox fans said it after Jon Lester was traded.

I can't think of a single time this happened. I'm sure it's occurred some time or other, but it's just not how it works. There's going to be bad blood, whether it was a good/smart trade or not. The player feels like the team didn't want or value him enough. They just not going back to that team.

Football is a sport where I'd say more guys return to their former team than they tend to in other sports. But not immediately after. Or maybe my thinking here is influenced by the Patriots, who brought back a bunch of guys during the Belichick years. Baseball players return to their old teams. Look at Rickey Henderson and the Athletics. Guy was amazing on the A's, left the A's, came back to the A's and was amazing again and won an MVP (and a World Series title), and later had two more stints with the Athletics.

But Brad Marchand isn't coming back to the Bruins and if you're a Bruins fan you shouldn't want him back. That trade put Marchand in the best possible spot for him career-wise. This is his last hurrah, I think. He was put on the perfect team. They had the pieces in place, and he wasn't asked to be a main guy. He's a third line guy there. Doesn't have to be a grinder. Can still use what skill he has. Pick up some points. Kill penalties.

It must be weird going to a team for a few months, maybe winning a championship with those guys, and then you're on your third team in a bunch of months. I'm sure Marchand feels like he's a part of that team now. But he only has a few games left with them, and he kind of just got there. But another Cup would sure look nice as a career capper for him. I'm not say he can't play anymore. He can get 57 points as a third line/maybe second line player in the right situation. His body has been through a lot in terms of surgical procedures.

One of the persistent myths of playoff hockey is that OT goals are almost always fluke goals and that they are random, happen because of bad bounces, etc. But if you pay attention, that's not really true, and it's never been true. I wouldn't say that OT playoff goals are any more likely to be a fluky goal than a regulation goal is.

Marchand on the breakaway the other night. It was a breakaway. Not a fluke. The Oilers in Game 1. Okay, it was a power play, but there were like eight skill plays made in the lead-up to the game winner, and the moves that McDavid made and the pass that followed them were about as skilled and impressive a hockey display as you're going to see.

I can go back through the years, though. How about the Bruins and the Oilers in 1990 with the Peter Klima game? That wasn't a fluke goal. Islanders winning the Cup in 1980 against the Flyers in OT--also not a fluke goal. There are far fewer OT fluke OT playoff goals than just about anyone who talks about hockey would lead you to believe. And even most fluke goals happened because of a bad breakout, a vigorous forecheck, an ill-advised pinch that led to the possession in your zone anyway, whatever it may be. A puck battle was won. Fluke goals, as such, don't happen in a vacuum that often.

Game 2 of the NBA Finals went probably the only way it could have gone. The Pacers need to take one out of two in Indianapolis. The way for them to win this series is find a way to stick around and then steal that Game 7 on the road with Haliburton. Split at home, lose at OKC, even it up at home, somehow get close enough late in the fourth quarter in Game 7 to win in a similar fashion to how they won Game 1. I'm not saying you have scheduled losses in the Finals of all things, but if they get the split at home, I wouldn't be selling out to win that Game 5 in Oklahoma. Manage that game for Game 6 back home.

To me, there's a big gap between these two teams. When that's the case, you have to find a strategy/approach to the series overall, a plan, if you're the team that's less talented. You almost need to do a rope-a-dope kind of thing. Look at the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates against the New York Yankees. You aggregate those seven games, and the Yankees crushed them overall. But the Pirates found a way to be the first team to four wins. I think it's more likely for OKC to take both games in Indianapolis than it is for the Pacers to do so, but I'm rooting for the Pacers. I think they have gumption.

Here's another hockey thought: Auston Matthews should be a winger, not a center. Him playing center rather than wing is one reason I believe he struggles in the playoffs and why the Maple Leafs always do as well. He's a classic wing. He's a finisher. Not a play driver, not what you want defensively from a center. Steven Stamkos never struck me as a center either. When Matthews is at his best offensively, he's scoring more goals than he is registering assists. A center should be more of a playmaker.

The Red Sox took two out of three over the weekend from the Yankees which, frankly, surprised me, and should make the Yankees feel bad about themselves because that shouldn't have happened. The Red Sox were sloppy but less sloppy, I suppose. We're not talking clean, efficient victories here, but wins are wins.

I'll tell you, though, it's maddening how often Jarren Duran strikes out. I know other guys strike out more, but it seems like you never go a game without looking at that box score and see him in that lead off spot with one or two Ks. He has all of that speed, too, and speed just goes to waste when you don't put the bat on the ball. He doesn't walk enough to make up for the strikeouts either. But it's not like they have anyone else who should be leading off instead of him.